This is a Newton's cradle in geopolitics. One blow on 28 Feb 2026 sends force through bases, shipping lanes and domestic politics, and the last ball swings back when you least want it. Taking out air defences and missile sites reduces immediate capability, but it also tempts the target to prove it still has teeth. Leaders struck today may be replaced tomorrow, and replacement often rewards the hardest faction, not the calmest one. The mechanism is ugly: shock breeds retaliation, retaliation breeds more deployments, deployments breed miscalculation. The only way this stays bounded is if back-channel deals, not speeches, set limits on what gets hit next. If nobody can save face, everyone keeps throwing stones.