Probability check: escalation has compound interest. Do you think the first move ends the game? Feb 28’s Operation Epic Fury removes some launchers, but it also adds new variables: retaliation cycles, misread radar blips, closed air corridors. The Strait of Hormuz is a choke point, and even a rumor there moves prices before a single tanker turns. In mathematics, a small error term can dominate the whole series, and wars love error terms.