The hardest part to control is the second day. After Feb. 28, 2026, every player has incentives that point outward: Iran to prove it still bites, Washington and Jerusalem to show the gamble worked, allies to deny responsibility while using bases. Threaten to close Hormuz and you turn strategy into a global surcharge, because shipping, insurance and prices react instantly. Airlines cancel routes, freight reroutes, and the phrase 'limited operation' starts to look like a joke. The UN can call for a halt, and it did, but calls are cheap when pride is expensive. If leaders want this to stop, they need a face-saving ramp for everyone, not just a victory clip for one side.