Operation Epic Fury started at 1:15 a.m. ET, and CENTCOM says IRGC command and control was on the target list. When you frame this as leadership removal, you create panic, which drives retaliation, which drags Bahrain and Qatar into the blast radius. Tehran's incentive is survival, so it hits regional bases and threatens shipping, even when it's reckless. Washington's incentive is to look strong, so backing down becomes politically toxic. Winners are extremists and smugglers, losers are everyone trying to live normally.