CENTCOM says strikes began at 1:15 a.m. ET and hit air defenses and military airfields. Hours later the U.S. Embassy in Qatar told Americans to shelter in place, because retaliation was expected. Insurers have one incentive: do not get burned, so they price risk up, which raises shipping costs, which hits every household at the pump. Iran has talked about choking the Strait of Hormuz, and even an unconfirmed order can jolt markets. Winners are anyone selling missiles, losers are civilians from Tehran to Manama who just want one normal night.